As GE-13 looms, Perak already turning into a political ‘killing field'

The latest polls show that Perakians will favour Pakatan in the next general election, expected to be called in 2012. It is going to be a mounting task for Barisan Nasional (BN)to remain in power after the muddled and dubious take over from Pakatan in February 2009 after three state legislative members from Pakatan declared themselves as Independent. Apparently, the electorate are still incensed over the events that brought down Pakatan’s government through the court processes.
Zambry Abdul Kadir, the present MB, cannot be solely blamed for the present Umno and BN’s unpopularity in Perak. In fact their popularity countrywide also have dashed to its lowest ebb because of their poor leadership qualities and the buzz pertaining to scandals, corruption, and cronyism among their leaders.
The prediction by political analysts is that the next general election would see Pakatan win with a simple majority in Perak. Zambry is aware of this predicament and the time now is just bad for him, as added to this political decrepitude there are a few ardent Umno aspirants eyeing for the post of Perak MB – pathetically sighting Zambry’s weaknesses as a leader for the past three years. A voter from Ipoh has this to say: “The next general election will see a win for Pakatan. Zambry, or any other Umno aspirant to become MB, will not sway the people’s sentiment here. The people will still vote for Pakatan.”

Zambry will not contest a state seat
The political game in Perak is simple but mucky. Zambry was inadvertently made the ‘sacrificial lamb’ when BN took over Perak from Pakatan in February 2009. He had to virtually do all the ‘dirty’ jobs for the ruling coalition at the time and after BN ousted the Pakatan government in Perak. In the route, they did not mind if Zambry was ostracized and end up becoming an unsung hero as long as Perak remains in BN’s fold. This was perceived as a ‘personality sacrifice’ planned by those at the top within Umno. The next MB of Perak if BN were to win the next state election – which is very unlikely – would not be Zambry anymore.
According to some political analysts, Zambry would not contest a state seat in the next election. He may probably be given a parliamentary seat to contest or he would choose not to contest at all. The scheme by Umno here is that a new man going for the state leadership would most likely help make the people forget the sin and ordeal of the 2009 fiasco. This is quite an astute political fixture designed by shrewd political leaders in Umno. Be that as it may, political analysts have given a very slim chance for BN to retain Perak in the coming general election. Pakatan, as many polls indicate, will win over Perak but with a simple majority.
According to some reliable sources aligned to Zambry, he would not give in easily if there is going to be a challenge to his MB’s post if Barisan Nasional were to win in Perak in the next general election. A strong supporter of Zambry in Pangkor swiped: “We know that there are others aspiring to take over Zambry’s post. We will not support or vote for them.” Zambry on his part, despite his unpopularity as MB, is still determined to contest a state seat and continue as MB of Perak.

Want a more ‘Malay-looking’ MB
Zambry has all the right and valid reasons to do so. This time he would want to prove to the people that he was the ‘legitimate’ MB of Perak to put off critics that he was a ‘court appointed’ Chief. He would want to bear out that it was no stroke of luck that he became the MB. His appointment as MB was legitimate and it was due to his ability and credibility. Many Perakians though are not in favour of Zambry, neither are they in favour of any other MB from BN. They would want to return the post to Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin – the more popular MB who helmed the state just after the March 2008 general election and before Zambry tool over in February 2009. A voter from Changkat Jering said: “I did not vote for Pakatan in the last general election. This time I will vote for Pakatan. I want to see Nizar back as MB.”
But, Umno members in Perak and at the federal level believe otherwise. Zambry is becoming less and less popular among the Malays in Perak. Some Umno members want a more ‘Malay-looking’ MB to head the state to counter the popular Nizar who is widely tipped to become the MB of Perak after the next general election. Umno members here feel that Zambry is not a match for Nizar’s charisma and popularity. But, they are also in a quandary as whom to choose to replace Zambry for fear of hostile response from the latter’s supporters.
It is fact that in Perak, currently, there are too many Umno leaders eyeing for the MB’s post and they all have their own supporters – a symptom that Umno is very split in Perak. A Parit Umno supporter has this say: “It’s going to be tough this time. Umno members are divided. They have their own candidate to vie for MBship. If their candidate is not selected to vie for the post they will disrupt Umno’s election machinery .” In fact, this discontentment among Umno members has already erupted in the state.

The people are not convinced
Umno is now facing a tight spot in Perak. If Zambry is not chosen to continue becoming MB – in a hypothetical situation where BN could retain Perak – this will dishearten him most. If Zambry is purportedly the man to retain his post as MB and BN loses to Pakatan, Zambry would be blamed and his political career would meet a premature end. Zambry does not want to leave politics as a loser with his pride bumped off.
According to his staunch supporters, Zambry is trying hard to impress the people that he is still relevant in Perak. He goes round the village telling how much he has helped developed the state for the past three years. The people are not very convinced, though. A resident in Bota had this to say: “ I see no change in our livelihood here except that prices of almost everything have gone up. Those working for the government have money to spend, the businessmen are making money but we are finding it hard to make ends meet. I have five school-going children and life for many of us here is real tough.”
Zambry is aware that many rural folks here still have a soft spot for Nizar – his predecessor. Many Perakians still think of Nizar as the rightful MB. In general, the Malays are divided as they now have the tendency to also vote for PAS, PKR and even DAP. Umno, apparently, cannot depend on total Malay votes as it is going to be an almost a split-into-three Malay electorate for Umno and the Opposition. Nonetheless, Zambry is not giving up observing this phenomenon. He knows that he cannot get full support even from Umno members. He has to depend on the Chinese and Indian voters.

Empty promises
He has been trying hard to impress the Chinese by attending almost all MCA functions but the support for him among the Chinese is near to the ground. MCA has lost its influence in Perak to DAP, PKR and even PAS. As for Gerakan and PPP they are at their lowest ebb ever, as the perception is that these two BN component parties is a foregone conclusion in Perak. The odds are that all MCA, Gerakan and PPP candidates contesting in the next general election in Perak would lose their seats to the Opposition. A voter from Jelapang jibed: “MCA and Gerakan have no hope anymore. The Chinese here will even vote for PAS candidates to give Pakatan a chance. They have more faith in PAS than BN candidates.”
Zambry would also go round meeting the Indians talking to them in Tamil to impress them that he has not forgotten his roots. Unfortunately, the marginalised Indians are not convinced with all his sweet talks. They are already immune to the typical Umno rhetoric which carries no substance. An Indian voter in Sungkai sneered: “ Umno is known for its empty promises. They have promised mountains for the Indians in the past but they are all empty promises. Once they win the election, they will keep quiet and neglect the Indians. Sweet talks this time is not going to make us vote for MIC or Umno. We voted for DAP in 2008 and we will again vote for DAP or the Opposition this time.”
No matter how hard Zambry has tried to convince the people, he finds himself on the defensive most of the time. He has at times experienced ‘rejection’ while approaching the people but has masticated it wisely as he understands the sentiment on the grounds. His unpopularity among the electorate can be sensed by Umno leaders.

A political mêlée within Umno
Even the minority Indian Muslims here are not too impressed with Umno. Surprisingly, not all Indian Muslims in Perak are in favour of Umno though the incumbent MB is ‘of their kind’. A restaurant owner in Grik taunted: “The Malays are not too happy with us of late. They envy us because we work very hard and of course earn more. We are not asking anything from Umno. Why must the Malays envy us? We earn money through hard work.” The Malays here are not too happy that the more successful Indian Muslims are encroaching into their ‘bumi territory’. It looks like this ‘Penang syndrome’ – where most Malays are not happy with the Indian Muslims – has spread to Perak and also has affected other states as well. The Malays are getting more aware that that their rights and privileges are gradually being taken away by some pseudo-Malays. Just like what is happening in Penang, there is a sort of couched animosity between the Malays and the Indian Muslims in Perak.
To make the situation worse for Zambry, there is also a political mêlée within Umno itself in Perak. The implosion within Perak Umno is imminent. The Perak Umno Youth seem not in favour of Zambry becoming the MB. Possibly – according to some political analysts – they see him as not a ‘real Malay’. They also perceive him as an ineffective MB. If the truth were to be told, it’s all for the reason that Perak Umno Youth have their own candidate for the post of Perak MB. A supporter of Zambry in Pangkor whined: “Though we support him, it will be hard for Zambry to retain his post as MB. The contest is not only within Umno boys lobbying for the post but the real threat will come from Nizar. Nizar will win easily, is more popular and the likelihood for Pakatan taking over is there. Squabbling within Umno will lead to internal sabotage and this will help Pakatan more.”

MCA president would probably contest
The lobbying for the number one post is thus getting more intense within Umno. MCA, Gerakan, MIC and PPP are just helpless sensing that this political turf war within Umno in Perak could wretchedly affect their chance of getting votes from Umno members. These BN component parties have no choice but to depend on Umno members to win any seat they were to contest. Seemingly, the prediction is that again the majority Chinese and Indian votes would go to Pakatan candidates.
There has been rumours that MCA president would probably contest in one of the safe Umno seats in Perak as he knows that he can never win in any Chinese majority seats. But his chance of winning in a Malay majority seat is equally slim despite the fact that just recently Umno ‘outsourced’ the Hudud issue to him to tell all Malaysians that this syariah law cannot be empowered by any political parties in the country. He managed to recruit some badly informed ‘scholars’ and Umno religious dimwits to charade on this. It only ended up in making the Malays more disappointed with him and Umno.
The Hudud matter espoused by the MCA President has terribly backfired on Umno and Najib, but the latter has chosen to remain silent on this. What's more, the MCA’s ‘chartbuster video’ that circulated in almost all past by-elections would certainly make a come back to ‘entertain’ the people in Perak in the next general election. The honourable president will then be political butchered in any seat he contests in Perak.

Too many factions in Umno
Sensing that Zambry will be sidelined by Umno top leadership, a strong Umno faction has emerged in support of former MB, Tajol Rosli to be made MB again if at all BN wins in Perak. There is another strong group aligned to Ahmad Zahid Hamidi – Umno vice president and a federal minister – though he may not be Najib’s choice. Zahidi may feel that by becoming the MB it would be a major breakthrough for him as he is not sure that he would be retained as a minister after the next general election.
His candid disclosure of many things did not please his political master. There was the issue over allegations of official corruption after the theft of two Northrop Grumman F-5E US-made fighter jet engines worth US29million that were stolen from a military airbase and sold on the black market. This happened when Najib was the Defence Minister. Also disclosed was the Scorpene submarine – whopping RM7billion paid to two Scorpene submarines in KD Tunku Abdul Rahman and KD Tun Abdul Razak – that could not sink just after delivery.
This circumvented way of disclosing these issues must also have indirectly insinuated Perimekar – that acted as the go-between for the procurement of the two French-made submarines by the Malaysian Defence Ministry. In the process, the company – established by close friends of Najib – made a whopping RM534.8 million in commission. According to Wikileaks, Perimekar was suspected of being created for the sole purpose of distributing a RM500 million commission between Malaysian and foreign beneficiaries after the sale of the submarines. The company, registered in 1999, defines its ‘activity’ as “marketing, maintenance and other activities related to submarines and surface vessels…”. All these leads must have hurt his political master most.

Aligned to Khairy and Muhyiddin
In fact, many political analysts sense that Zahid – a former close aide of Anwar Ibrahim – is now more aligned to Khairy and Muhyiddin than Najib. But Zahid too is ambitious to become Perak MB so that he can keep a lower political profile and does not need him to ‘rub shoulders’ with ministers who are not, in truth, in favour of him. His prospect to become the next Perak MB is almost doomed.
Najib’s choice would perhaps be another contender, Husni Mohamad Hanadziah – the Second Finance Minister – not an effective but a flip-flop minister who could not even get his hobbyhorse Good and Services Tax (GST )Bill through in Parliament. Critics say, Husni too has a strong following among Umno members in Perak. However, it’s not going to be smooth sailing for him as the political sea in Perak Umno now is too choppy to forecast.
Umno Youth is lobbying for another candidate within its rank and file to have a stake in this Perak political turmoil. Supporters in all these factions are earnestly hoping to have a scoop at the gravy train if their candidate could hold the MB post. A wisecrack from a voter from Behrang was, “Umno is imploding. It is destroying itself. It’s not easy for Husni, as he does not have enough support from the grassroots. Umno is split into many factions. The Opposition will get many sympathy votes for what happened in February 2009. The people are not ready to forgive BN.”
Beyond these computations are the high hopes of many Umno aspirants to become candidates in the next general election. They have drawn their ‘daggers’, ready for the political brawl ahead. An Umno supporter in Malim Mawar mocked, “ Umno members who are ambitious but fail to be chosen as candidates will end up sabotaging the party in the election. They did this in the past general election. They will do this again in the next general election”

The disruptive game
According to some Umno sources, the four Independent candidates – former PKR and DAP state lawmakers – are lobbying hard that they be made candidates under BN tickets in the next GE. Failing which they would stand as independents and turn that into a ‘ bargaining chip’ on the eve of the election day. A former supporter of Jelapang candidate retorted, “ They stand no chance of winning in whatever capacity they contest. But this can end up spoiling some votes for BN or Pakatan and possibly seeking some monetary rewards before pulling out from the contest .” On the face of it, these turncoats would be slaid by the voters in any seat they contest.
No Umno members are willing to campaign for the party yet, waiting for the green lights from the top on who the right candidates would be. Once confirmed, those aligned to the disappointed candidates would pull their support for the chosen ones, as their high hope to have a share of the gravy train would be dashed. They will start the disruptive game like what happened in 2008. They will even vote for Pakatan to sabotage BN. BN lost badly in 2008 because of this element of sabotage. But Umno will never change. The members greed for power and money has been fossilised and this would eventually ‘kill’ Umno in Perak.
To drop Zambry is Umno’s political calculation for Barisan Nasional to hold on Perak. The political reckoning is that Zambry will only be the Perak MB until the next general election. Umno has wisely captured that the next general election will favour Pakatan as the true sentiment on the grounds says so. The Chinese, Indians and Malays are still all out for Pakatan to win. It’s not the issue of BN or Pakatan in this context, but the people in general feel that the process of democracy in the country was mottled in Perak in 2009.

Prospect is bright for Pakatan
Zambry was made the chieftain in the broil and tussle between BN and PR after the three PKR and DAP assemblymen became independent lawmakers in Perak. Zambry entered the scrimmage at the wrong time – a big sacrifice indeed on his part. And today, no matter how well he tries to play his role as the rightful MB for all in Perak, he has yet to fully win the hearts of the people. In the people’s court of opinion, many feel that Nizar is still the rightful MB of Perak.
The scenario that changed the political landscape after three lawmakers quit their parties in early 2009 in a roundabout way brought Zambry into the limelight, but it ended in the disgruntled electorate having a negative perception of him. This was just ill-timed for Zambry – a man who at the beginning did not really anticipate that he would become the MB in the chaotic political environment. Zambry got into the political fray at the wrong time and this has put himself in a knotty position. He has now become the punching bag not only for the Opposition – his nemesis – but also for a silent but dodgy majority who are ambitious within Umno’s camp.
The prospect is bright for Pakatan now in Perak, as Umno is deeply involved in tussles and lobbying. The winner in this scuffle for power within Umno would be none other than Nizar, the cool MB in waiting. As for Pakatan, it has been a unanimous decision by Pakatan Rakyat that Nizar will the MB should Pakatan win back the state.

Field more PAS candidates
The prophecy is that all the four seats held by Independents now will fall back to Pakatan. DAP will get to hold 18 seats. PAS 12 (if more seats are allocated to PAS against Umno for its steadfastness and the dynamic Nizar factor) and PKR 4. All in, Pakatan would likely secure 34 out of the 59 state seats. This may not be a two-thirds majority but suffices to form the state government.
Political analysts sense that PKR may not field as many candidates as PAS for the next general election in Perak. Pakatan should be wise enough to take note of this judicious view and field more PAS candidates – who have already proven to be more righteous in their political struggle – to contest state seats against Umno, as Perak’s future MB would be Nizar who is from PAS if Pakatan wins the next general election.

Malaysia Chronicle